A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
